As once-stellar growth rates start to dip, watchers of China's mammoth economy worry that it could be worse than it looks because the official figures might not be telling the whole story. But amid mistrust of government numbers, economists are divided over what other measurement
As once-stellar growth rates start to dip, watchers of China's mammoth economy worry that it could be worse than it looks because the official figures might not be telling the whole story.
But amid mistrust of government numbers, economists are divided over what other measurements they can use.
Official growth figures last year were the slowest in nearly a quarter of a century, and dropped to seven percent in the first half of this year -- suspiciously close to government predictions.
However, there is an emerging consensus among economists that real growth in China is lower.
The median estimate proffered by eleven other economists consulted by Bloomberg was 6.3 percent.
Analysts have long noted the political nature of economic statistics in China -- where the ruling Communist Party depends on growth for legitimacy.
That means that if you add up all the growth reported by the provinces, it regularly exceeds the national rate.
Figures are also published disconcertingly quickly; It took officials less than two weeks to unveil this year's second quarter growth, compared with a month in the US.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in mid-September that China could "further improve" the quality and the transparency of its data.
